This morning (without any clear catalyst) the cryptocurrency market has shown an extremely worrying dynamic – primarily affecting altcoins. Within just a few hours, the following declines were recorded (approximate figures):
→ BTC/USD: down 2.5%;
→ ETH/USD: на 7%;
→ DOGE/USD: на 10%.
It is possible that market participants were readjusting their positions after the weekend, assessing the impact of recent central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. At the same time, the excessive use of leverage – a common feature of crypto markets – may have triggered cascading long liquidations. Will the decline continue?
Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart
On 11 September, while analysing Bitcoin’s chart, we updated the long-term blue channel and suggested that:
→ Bitcoin’s price remains in a corrective phase (highlighted by the red channel) within the broader global uptrend, with a bull flag pattern forming;
→ bulls are still dominant, though their momentum could be weakening.
Against this backdrop, today’s decline appears to be the result of insufficient bullish momentum to break through the upper boundary of the flag and resume growth within the blue channel.
Resistance was provided by the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone, plotted from the bearish impulse A→B.
What followed was a weak rebound (a dead cat bounce pattern) from the lower boundary of the September upward trajectory (as indicated by the arrow), confirming the fading strength of buyers. Further declines accompanied by expanding bearish candles and higher volumes are a textbook sign of imbalance in favour of sellers.
Therefore, we have grounds to conclude that:
→ bears have forcefully asserted control over the psychological $115k level;
→ bulls are retreating towards the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel.
Given the above, we could assume that over the next 1–3 weeks the BTC/USD rate may consolidate within a broad zone, forming an S-R triangle.
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