In our 21 January note, titled “Bitcoin Falls Below $90k: Why Does It Matter?”, we confirmed the relevance of a system of two trend channels and highlighted that the price was sitting at the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel, which had previously acted as strong support in 2025.
In that analysis, we:
→ examined the fundamental drivers behind the price decline;
→ identified a series of bearish signals reflected in BTC/USD price swings;
→ pointed to persistent selling pressure and a growing risk of a support break.
As the Bitcoin price chart shows since then:
→ the lower boundary proved its role as support once more, triggering a rebound (marked by an arrow) on 25–26 January;
→ however, bullish momentum only carried the price up to the psychological $90k level, which acted as resistance on 28 January.
Following this, Bitcoin began to move lower. During the decline, the price successfully broke the key support level, with accelerating downward momentum in BTC/USD confirming that the support had lost its strength.
The lower boundary of the red channel may still act as support, while a potential break below November’s low could trigger panic. In the coming days, a local recovery toward the red channel’s median is possible, especially after signs of oversold conditions.
Overall, the long-term ascending channel on the BTC/USD chart is losing relevance, while the descending trend is becoming increasingly dominant.
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