As shown on the XAU/USD chart today, gold climbed above $5,170, reaching its highest level so far this month. The main bullish factors are:
- → US tariff uncertainty – after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs on Friday, the US president reinstated them, initially at 10% and then announcing an increase to 15% on Saturday.
- → Heightened geopolitical tensions – media reports indicate that the US is prepared not only for targeted strikes against Iran but also for a longer military operation. The presence of two aircraft carrier groups in the region raises the risk of direct confrontation, traditionally boosting gold demand.
- → End of the Chinese holiday season – the People’s Bank of China, pursuing a reserve diversification strategy away from the US dollar, may continue purchasing physical gold.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
On 17 February, analysis of gold price movements confirmed the long-term ascending channel and highlighted:
- → Bearish activity visible through the descending resistance line (R);
- → Bulls could rely on the channel’s lower boundary as support.
Indeed (as the arrow shows), the market remained within the channel. Moreover, bulls broke above the resistance line (R), which then acted as support around $4,960.
This formed an upward trajectory (black lines). Bullish behaviour is notable around $5,100, where price:
- → Gapped higher at the open;
- → Rose above the line dividing the lower half of the channel into two quarters.
Considering the chart, it is reasonable to suggest bulls currently hold the initiative, supported by fundamentals. They may aim for the channel’s median, with $5,100 providing support in case of a pullback.
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