The resilience of the Swiss economy and inflation remaining below 1% have made the Swiss franc an attractive safe-haven asset amid an extremely tense geopolitical backdrop and elevated gold prices. As the USD/CHF chart shows, the US dollar fell against the Swiss franc below 0.7650 in February — the lowest level since summer 2011.
However, the pair has since begun forming higher lows, suggesting that strong support is emerging in this area. The outbreak of intensified military activity in the Middle East this week has led to a rise in the USD, with the dollar also strengthening against the franc. Market participants may be starting to view the Swiss currency as an overvalued safe-haven asset.
Notably:
- → This week could mark the second-largest weekly gain since the beginning of 2025.
- → The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has already hinted at the possibility of currency interventions due to the “excessive strength of the franc”.
Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart
From a bearish perspective:
- → The 0.7870 level, which acted as support throughout 2025 (before being broken), has predictably served as resistance this week.
- → The rebound from the February low may be interpreted as a bearish flag pattern within the broader long-term downtrend, suggesting the potential continuation of that trend.
From a bullish perspective:
- → Buying pressure has clearly broken through local resistance (the red trend line), meaning the 0.7760 level may now act as support.
- → Price movements are forming the outlines of an ascending channel.
Given that USD/CHF is trading near multi-year lows, it is reasonable to assume that the projected blue trajectory may not represent merely a temporary rebound within a multi-month bearish trend, but could instead be part of a significant bullish reversal. In this scenario, the lower blue trend line takes on strategic importance.
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