STOCKS
Dow (24922.68, +0.40%), as per our expectations in the last briefing, has stayed below 25000 during the holiday week, and could now attempt to move towards resistance near 25400 on the daily candles over the next couple of weeks.
Dax (12978.21, +0.83%) tested support near 12767 on 2nd Jan, and is now seeing a bounce underway, which could take it to 13000 in the next couple of days and lead to a test of resistance near 13200 next week.
Nikkei (23326.06, +2.46%) has shot up since yesterday after being range bound in the narrow range of 22600-23000 during the festive week. It might see a dip from current levels or after testing resistance near 23400 on the 3 day line charts.
Shanghai (3382.02, +0.38%) has bounced from its sideway ranging just near support below 3300 in the past week and is now rapidly moving up, looking to test levels near 3500 which is a crucial resistance level, seen on 3 day and weekly candles.
Nifty (10443.20, +0.01%) and Sensex (33793.38, -0.06%) both haven’t seen much movement in the past week and might turn bearish for the near term, moving towards support near 10200-10250 and 33400-33500 respectively.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1308.20) has been on a continuous uprise since it tested support near 1236 in mid December. It broke resistance near 1285 (on daily candles) in end December and is now headed to test resistance near 1325 on the weekly line charts. With the recent bout of Dollar weakness expected to halt for a bit, we could see Gold stay below resistance at 1325, but in case of further bullishness, we could see attempt of 1350, seen as resistance on 3 day and weekly line charts.
Brent (67.93) and WTI (61.89) have both seen a rally in the last few days due to several factors like shutdown of the Forties North Sea pipeline, unrest in Iran and also, US stockpiles data showing a continuous decrease in inventory over the last few weeks. WTI might see a sloght corrective dip now, given that it is near resistance (61.90) on the daily & 3 day candles. Brent could find resistance near 68-68.50 on the weekly line charts.
Copper (3.2515) has been bullish since mid December, seeing a high near 3.30 at the beginning of the year from where a slight dip is now underway. It could dip further towards 3.10-3.15 before turning bullish again.
FOREX
2018 has started on a weak note for the Dollar.
The Euro (1.2015) broke above 1.19 to see a high of 1.2080 and has retreated a bit from there. It has intra-week support in the 1.1997-61 region and can target 1.21-22 in the next couple of weeks while the Support holds.
Dollar-Yen (112.68) has come down from the resistance at 113.50 and might try to break below 112.00. If successful it can target 110 in the coming weeks. Else it could move back up towards 113.50. Need to watch this.
The Euro-Yen (135.40) has risen well above earlier resistance at 134 but may have a channel resistance at 135.70 on the weekly candles. It will be crucial to see if this breaks or holds.
The Pound (1.3517) rose well above 1.35 standing upwards towards 1.36 and higher.
The Australian Dollar (0.7827) has been a star performer in December and looks bullish overall. But it has crucial 200-week moving average resistance just above current levels, which needs to break to allow the Aussie to move up further.
The Chinese Yuan (6.5060) has long term support just below current levels and could be a candidate for a bounce.
Dollar-Rupee (63.50) has fallen sharply last few days along with Euro strength. If the Euro again moves up from the 1.1997-61 Support region, then Dollar-Rupee may also find near term Resistance in the 63.60-80 region.
INTEREST RATES
US Yields dipped a bit in late December but have started to move up again in the last few days, perhaps on the back of higher crude prices. The US 10Yr (2.46%) seems to be straining to break above long term resistance at current levels. The 30Yr (2.80%) has room to rise on the upside. If so, it could lead to some much needed Curve-steepening.
German Yields have also been rising in the last few days and the German 10Yr (0.43%) could rise some more towards 0.50%. The last few days have seen the German-US Yield Spread (-2.03%) move up in favour of the Euro. Some more upside towards -2.00% or even -1.95% could be possible.
The 10Yr GOI (7.3447%) should have Resistance in the 7.40-45% region and ought to see a pullback towards 7.20% or evn 7.00%.
