Thu, Jan 20, 2022 @ 08:04 GMT
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Market Morning Briefing

STOCKS

Overall all stocks are mixed. Dow, Shanghai, Nikkei and Nifty looks bullish while Dax could face immediate resistance.

Dow (20663.22, -0.31%) is trying hard to rise from levels near 20400 levels and could slowly inch up towards 21200 in the near term. There is some more room on the upside for the near term. A re-test of 20500-20400 levels could also be a possibility during the week.

Dax (12312.87, +0.46%) has been moving up, much in line with our expectation and could test immediate resistance near 12400 from where a short dip towards 12220 is possible.

Nikkei (18977.37, +0.36%) fell sharply on Friday on a fall in Dollar-Yen from levels near 112.20 but the support on Nikkei above 18600 may hold giving another bounce to the price index in the coming sessions towards 19200 and higher.

Shanghai (3222.51, +0.38%) bounced back from just above the daily trend-support. While that holds, we could target for a rise towards 3250 and higher in the near term.

Nifty (9173.75) looks strongly bullish for the near to medium term. A rise towards 9200-9280 is on the cards for the coming sessions.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1246) and Silver (18.23) are going nowhere as they keep trading in the narrow range of 1237-1263 and 17.94-18.50 respectively, which may continue for the rest of the week. Global cues are in favor of gold and silver as a break below 99.70 for Dollar Index (100.26) could be resulted in good gains for bullion. We have been expecting 1237 for gold and 17.90 for silver to hold for the current week and gradual buying at lower levels can’t be ruled as buyers are taking every dip as a further opportunity for buying.

Copper (2.65) is trading within a range of 2.55-2.70 with no directional bias. Only above 2.70, higher resistances of 2.80 can come into consideration. In the medium term 2.55-57 are going to be a strong support now but a close below that could open up 2.49 levels.

Brent (52.83) and WTI (50.56) both are trading within their narrow ranges of 52-53.5 and 50.30-51.70. Considering the short term overbought state, we may see some profit taking at higher levels. The trend is still bearish in the near to medium term time frame and a close below their supports could open up 50 for Brent and 48.36 for WTI as well.

Gold WTI ratio (24.69) may find support at current levels and could bounce back towards 26-27 levels.

FOREX

A pause day for all the currencies. This rest phase may go on for another 1-2 sessions.

Dollar Index (100.40) has made a high at 100.60, very close to our initial target of 100.70 but the strength at the higher levels hint at further rally towards 101.00 in the coming days.

Euro (1.0678) has found interim support near 1.0650 for now but failure to rise and sustain above 1.0700 levels may push it down once again towards 1.0580.

Dollar-Yen (111.36) has been rejected exactly from our interim resistance of 112.15 but as long as it trades above 110.90-75, the chances of seeing 112.80 and 113.40 can’t be ruled out.

Pound (1.2544) continues trading in the range of 1.2350-1.2600 just as expected and no change in this range bound price action is seen for the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.7612) has been trading in the narrow range of 0.7600-0.7675 for the last 7-8 sessions but it is standing at crossroads now. Either an immediate bounce from 0.7600 levels is seen or the decline extends to 0.7530-00. Wait and watch.

Dollar Rupee (64.85) is trading absolutely flat in the NDF market this morning. Our target of 64.80 has been met but the chances of seeing 64.60 still on the cards. Immediate resistance comes at 64.95-65.00. It remains to be seen if 64.80-60 holds as expected or not.

INTEREST RATES

The UK yields are all mixed. The 5Yr (0.55%) has some room on the downside and could possibly test 0.50% while the 10YR (1.13%) and the 20Yr (1.64%) are testing near term supports and could bounce back immediately from current levels.

The German 10-2Yr (1.078%) has fallen sharply from resistance near 1.31% and has paused for now. But there could be some more fall towards 1% in the near term. The German yields by themselves are also falling and could continue to fall in the near term.

The Japan 5yr (-0.11%) is heading towards resistance just above current Levels and if that holds, it could come off in the near term towards -0.15%. the 10YR (0.07%) and the 30YR (0.84%) are also heading towards resistance and may come off in the near term.

The US 10-5Yr (0.47%) is rising and may head towards 0.48-0.49% in the coming sessions. The yields by themselves may rise from support levels in the near term.

Kshitij Consultancy Servicehttp://www.kshitij.com
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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