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Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 29-month low, bad news for global trade cycle

Japan PMI manufacturing was finalized at 50.3 in January, revised up from 50.0. But that’s still the lowest level in 29 months. And, new export orders decline at sharpest pace since July 2016. Also, business confidence falls for the eighth month running.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

“Japan Manufacturing PMI data brought bad news for the global trade cycle at the start of 2019, with new export orders falling at the sharpest rate in two-and-a-half years. Anecdotal evidence suggested that sales of goods relating to semi-conductors had particularly suffered, which bodes ill for other Asian exporters. Meanwhile, domestic markets also showed signs of frailty as total demand declined for the first time since September 2016.

“With Abe set to levy the consumption tax this year, and Sino-US trade tensions still lurking, domestic weakness in Japan further adds to already existing challenges. Business sentiment continued to drop, with survey data registering an eighth straight month where confidence has slipped. Falling inventories and cut backs to production suggest that manufacturers are bracing for further economic difficulty.”

Full release here.

Also from Japan, jobless rate dropped to 2.4% in December, below expectation of 2.5%.

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