US Non-Farm Payrolls report will be the major focus today. Markets are expecting 183k job growth in November. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to pick up to 0.3% mom. Dollar dropped sharply this week as poor ISMs pointed to weaker outlook ahead, and revived speculation of Fed cut next year. A strong set of NFP data today is needed to reverse the greenback’s fortune. Otherwise, selloff might accelerate further.
Other job related data released have been mixed to slightly negative. ISM manufacturing employment dropped from 47.7 to 46.6, suggesting deeper contraction in manufacturing jobs. ISM services employment rose to 55.5, up from 53.7. ADP private sector jobs grew just 67k. The details were also in-line with ISMs’, with goods-producing jobs contracted -18k. Service-providing jobs rose 85k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3k to 217.75k.
Current development now raised the chance that Dollar index’s recovery from 97.10 was only a corrective rise, and has completed at 98.39. Next focus will be 97.10 support. Break there will also have 55 week EMA firmly taken out. In that case, a medium term should be confirmed at 99.66. And, a medium term correction should at least be started towards 38.2% retracement of 88.30 to 99.66 at 95.32.