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Japan GDP grew 5% qoq in Q3, but still JPY 30T in output gap

Japan GDP grew 5.0% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 4.4% qoq, a turn around from Q2’s -7.9% qoq contraction. In annualized term, GDP grew 21.4%, above expectation of 18.9%, the first increase in four quarters. It’s also the largest rise since comparable data become available in 1980, following the -28.8% annualized contraction in Q2. The data, while strong, was just seen as a rebound from an extraordinary pandemic contraction only.

Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura also sounded cautious as he reminded people of the JPY 30T spare capacity. “We can’t make up for all of the output gap just with public works spending. We also need to spur private investment. But the size (of the output gap) is something we’ll look at” in compiling the new spending package, he said.

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