US non-farm payroll report is back as a major focus for today, in particular with talk of faster Fed tapering in the background. Markets are expecting 525k job growth in November. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%. Average hourly earnings are expected to have another solid 0.4% mom growth.
Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing rose slightly from 52.0 to 53.3. ADP private job grew 534k, just slightly down from prior month’s 570k. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped notably from 285k to 239k. Consumer confidence edged down from 111.6 to 109.5. Overall, the data point to a solid NFP report today.
Dollar index is still holding above 95.51 near term support despite a correction in the past two weeks. Technically speaking, consolidation from 96.93 should be relatively brief and larger rise from 89.53 is likely to resume sooner rather than later. However, firm break of 95.51 could bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 94.68) before DXY finds a bottom.
