ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a speech that the central bank’s tightening is estimated to have “already lowered inflation by around 0.2 percentage points in 2022”.
“The considerable lags between monetary policy actions and their impact on inflation, however, imply that most of the effects are only expected to materialise from 2023 onward.” Inflation is estimated to be 1.2% lower in 2023 and 1.8% lower in 2024 as a result of the tightening.
On the other hand, the impacts on GDP growth “occur much sooner across most models, with the peak effect expected this year.” The negative impact on real GDP growth is estimated to be around 1.5 percentage points on average over the three years.
