ECB’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q4 presents marginal adjustments to economic outlook for the 2023-2025 period. Also, headline inflation expectations underwent minimal changes for these years.
Regarding the HICP, inflation forecast for 2023 has been adjusted upwards to 5.6% from its earlier 5.5% estimation. The projections for 2024 remain steady at 2.7%, whereas for 2025, it was slightly dialed back to 2.1% from the prior 2.2% prediction.
On the core inflation front, 2023 remains unchanged at 5.1%. However, the following years see a minor downard revision, with 2024 expectations set at 2.9% (down from earlier 3.1%) and 2025 set at 2.2% (down from 2.3%).
Turning to Real GDP growth, 2023 projections are adjusted downwards to 0.5% an prior 0.6%. 2024 now stands at 0.9%, a reduction from 1.1% previously forecasted. Growth projection for 2025 remains steady at 1.5%.
