The December meeting accounts showed the ECB broadly aligned with prevailing market rate expectations of not rate move in the near term. Nevertheless, the accounts emphasized that patience should not be misread as inertia.
While the Governing Council felt policy was “in a good place,” members stressed that this did not imply a static stance. The ECB retains flexibility to respond as conditions evolve, indicating that patience does not equate to reluctance to act or a one-sided reaction function.
Uncertainty featured prominently in the discussion. Novel risks—including the AI-driven investment boom, potential U.S. tariffs, and concerns over Chinese dumping—cloud the outlook. While some members saw risks skewed toward inflation undershooting the target, a smaller group warned of overshoot risks.
Against that backdrop, “it was important not to give the impression that the next move would be in one direction or the other, or to suggest any tightening or easing bias,” the minutes noted.
