Gold and Silver are technically fragile after last week’s sharp mid-week selloff. The subsequent recoveries have lacked conviction, with momentum indicators failing to show meaningful upside traction. Price action suggests sellers remain in control in the near term. A retest of the early February lows now looks increasingly likely, particularly if Dollar stages a more notable rebound.
In broader context, both metals have transitioned into medium-term corrective phases. The powerful, unified macro narrative that fueled last year’s record-breaking rally is no longer present. Instead of a dominant theme like geopolitics or central bank policies, price movements are now more technical and intermarket-driven.
Technically, Gold’s break below its near-term rising trend line raises the risk that rebound from 4,403.34 has already completed at 5,119.18 in a three-wave corrective structure. As long as 5119.18 caps upside, near-term risks remain mildly skewed lower. Break below 4,878.18 temporary low could trigger acceleration toward 4654.59 support. A firm move through that level would open the door for retest of 4,403.34.
Silver shows similar vulnerability. Strong rejection at the 85 resistance zone — where 55 4H MACD rolled over and 38.2% retracement of 121.83 to 63.98 at 85.46 converged — suggests rebound from 63.98 has likely completed at 86.28. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 63.98. But an immediate break there is not expected. Range trading between 63.98 and 86.28 may dominate in near term before broader decline from 121.83 resumes.
