Euro recovers broadly as traders are awaiting ECB rate decision and press conference. No change in monetary policy is expected today. Main refinancing rate should stay at 0.00%, deposit facility rate at -0.40% and marginal lending facility rate at 0.25%. The EUR 30B per month asset purchase program will continue to run until end of September as planned.
ECB’s press conference could be watched here if you’re interested.
Here are some ECB preview reports:
- ECB Preview: Caution over Recent Slowdown Won’t Affect QE Schedule
- ECB Meeting: Staying “Cautious” for Now?
- No Change to ECB Guidance Yet
- Potentially Dovish ECB Could Accelerate EUR/USD’s Breakdown
- ECB Preview – Not On Draghi’s Watch
EUR’s recovery is actually quite weak considering that it’s limited below yesterday’s highs, which are not far away.
EUR’s own outlook is mixed too. EUR/USD, is near term bearish. But EUR/CHF, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are bullish. EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP are mixed from action bias table.
We’d prefer not to anticipate whether Euro traders will react positively, or negatively to ECB press conference. However, if the response is positive, 1.2 in EUR/CHF is the first one to look at, and 1.6189 the second.
If the response is negative, 1.2154 in EUR/USD is the first level to watch. And the second will be 1.5608 in EUR/CAD, yesterday’s low.
