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A One-Million US Jobs Report?

Market movers today Today's market highlight will be the US jobs report for April. In light of increasing reports about labour shortages in some sectors, we expect another strong month of jobs gains. Market consensus is looking for a one-million job gain. After a marked decline in January and...

Investors Awaiting US Jobs Report Before Making The Next Move

US equity futures are struggling for direction this morning after a late tech selloff yesterday sent the Nasdaq lower for a fourth consecutive session. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to advance to a new record high with the support of cyclical industries. European markets are also set...

The US Dollar Wins Amongst FX Majors

Markets Don't be blinded by market talks that US Treasury Secretary Yellen triggered yesterday's risk sell-off. Most of the intraday harm had already been done ahead of her comment that “it may be that interest rates have to rise somewhat to make sure our economy doesn't overheat”. She later stressed...

Yellen Backtracks On Fed Rate Comments

Market movers today ECB Chief Economist Lane will speak on the current status of the ECB's monetary policy strategy review. Fed's Evans, Rosengren and Mester will also be out speaking during the afternoon. In the US, the ADP employment report will give some indications ahead of non-farm payrolls released...

US Bond Yields Stabilise Despite Massive Supply

Market movers today Another quiet day awaits us with few signals from the data front. Fed's Kaplan and Daly will be on the wires later in the day. In Denmark, foreign reserve figures for April are released and it will be interesting to see whether Danmarks Nationalbank continued to...

US Bond Yields Continue To Bottom Out

Markets We weren’t expecting much impact from yesterday’s US durable goods data given important events and data due later this week. Yet it proved a pivotal moment for day trading, especially in core bond markets. Goods orders, be it headline or core, by and large disappointed. Some special factors including...

Europe Edges Higher, FTSE Under-Performs, Tesla Due To Report

European stocks trade quietly mixed at the start of what promises to be a very busy week. With UK bank earnings, US tech earnings, the FOMC rate decision, in addition to OPEC there is plenty to keep investors engaged. The FTSE is underperforming its European peers, just failing to keep...

Dollar Slump Deepens, Stocks Quiet Ahead Of Big Earnings

Dollar rout continues as Fed expected to repeat dovish message Euro capitalizes, climbs to 2-month top on renewed European optimism Stocks lack direction, await key earnings and barrage of US data releases Dollar stuck in the doldrums but yields firmer eyeing Fed It’s Fed week but the dollar can’t catch...

Covid-19 Nerves Shake, But Don’t Stir Asia

The slow, but steady increase in Covid-19 cases across Asia, ex-India, is weighing on sentiment in early Asian trading. India's situation dominated the weekend press, but across Japan, South Korea, Thailand and others in between, Covid-19 is undermining confidence in cyclical recovery that many, including the author, have priced...

A Taxing Friday

A wave of risk aversion swept US markets overnight after US President Biden signalled his intention to increase capital gains tax on high-income earners massively. That undid the excellent work of the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which unexpectedly retreated for the second week in a row to 547,000....

Asian Equities Rise As Wall Street Recovers

Asian equities rebound on improved Wall Street sentiment A well-received 20-year US bond auction swung the daily momentum back in favour of the bulls overnight on Wall Street, after two days of growling bears. The S&P 500 rallied by 0.93%, the Nasdaq jumped 1.19%, and the Dow Jones climbed by...

Stronger EUR And Higher Bund Yields

Market movers today PEPP data: We will keep an eye on the gross PEPP purchase data published by ECB this afternoon after net purchase data yesterday showed a surprisingly modest buying pace last week. Swedish house price data: This morning showed a 20% rise y/y in house prices. The 60...

Pull Back in Treasury Yields Boosted Stocks to New Record, Dollar Set Up for More Downside

Dollar tumbled broadly again as falling treasury yield pushed US and German stocks to new record highs. Near term trend in the greenback should have reversed, but it's unsure whether it's ready for medium term down trend resumption yet. At least, EUR/USD will have to break through 1.2 handle...

The MSCI Continues To Rise Amid Investor Optimism ABout The Global Economic Recovery While The Dollar Declines

The majority of Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, following the US stocks and bonds. Investors ignored higher-than-forecasted inflation in the US and focused on the global economic recovery. Japanese stocks were the exception, falling in light of a slow rollout of the vaccination program. However, the MSCI Global Index climbed...

US Treasuries Send The Dollar Lower

As US yields retreat, dollar dips All roads lead to the US 10-year yield now, it seems, and currency markets are no exception. A firm 30-year auction and a post-inflation data fall in US yields saw the US dollar head south. The dollar index fell by 0.30% to 91.82, with...

Markets Unrattled By US Inflation Jump, Dollar Slips, Stocks Hit Record

Bond markets shrug off surge in US inflation as yields fall, dragging dollar to 3½-week low But stocks impervious as Tesla drives S&P 500 to fresh record; bank earnings coming up Dollar plunge lifts rivals, yen finds little love despite J&J vaccine woes No panic after US inflation shoots...

Inflation Fears Shrugged Off

Markets ignore rise in US inflation US inflation duly rose by 0.50% MoM for March overnight, roughly an eight-year high. However, the print was only just above expectations, and with markets ignoring the collapse of the China trade surplus earlier in the day, it was no surprise that Wall Street...

Dollar Softens ahead of Treasury Auctions, Sterling Staging Strong Recovery

Dollar turns softer entering into US session, as traders await the results of auctions of both 3- and 10-year bonds, worth USD 96B in total. Additionally, there will be auction of USD 24B of 30-year bonds tomorrow, and a total of USD 151B in bills this week. It should...

Asia Gets Ali Ba-Bashed

The USD2.8 billion antitrust fine levelled upon Alibaba by Chinese authorities this weekend has set the tone for the Asian equity market this morning, which is a sea of red. Perversely, Alibaba’s stock has rallied as the fine wasn’t as bad as it could have been (roughly 4.0% of...

Earnings Season To Determine The Fate Of The Bull Market

Ever since the US stock market bottomed on 23 March last year, equities have been driven by brighter global growth expectations supported by fiscal and monetary policies and scientists who have worked towards eliminating the virus worldwide. According to the most recent BofA report, equity funds have attracted $576 billion...

Bitcoin And Altcoins Drop As Profit-Taking Intensifies

The US dollar rose against other key currencies after the latest minutes by the Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC). In the meeting, the bank left its pandemic response tools like interest rates and quantitative easing unchanged as expected. In the minutes, the officials indicated that the current easy money...

The Stock Market Is Trading Near Its Highs And The Dollar Index Continues To Decline

On Tuesday, Sentix released unexpectedly positive data on investors’ expectations. Investors’ optimism about the eurozone economic recovery hit a record high in April, amid hopes that faster vaccinations would ease quarantine measures, according to the research. An indicator measuring the current situation surged to the levels that were last...

Dollar Extends Retreat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Dollar and pound give back ground as bond yields cool down Euro and yen stage a relief rally – can it last? Stocks trade quietly near record highs, FOMC minutes in sight Dollar and sterling hit by falling yields The new quarter has turned the tables in the currency market,...

The US Dollar Marks Time

US dollar trading sideways The overnight session saw some wide ranges in both the dollar index and the major currencies, as quarter and month-end flows dominated. With the Biden infrastructure package passing without incident on the US bond market, the US dollar gave back some of its week’s gains. Despite...

Expecting The Expected

Markets yawn on Biden infrastructure announcement President Biden released the first details of his highly anticipated infrastructure programme overnight. The package itself totalled around USD2.25 trillion of spending over 10 years, with approximately USD1.60 trillion of corporate tax rises phased in over 15 years. No mention was made of higher...

Europe Edges Lower, Biden And US Bonds In Focus

After a weak handover from Wall Street and Asia, European bourses are heading south, giving back some of yesterday’s gains. A combination of surging US treasury yields overnight and risk-off trade-on concerns over further fallout from the Archegos margin default are dragging on stocks. While Tuesday’s session in Europe was...

Build Back Better Bashes Bonds

The implications of President Biden's Build Back Better programme are starting to dawn on financial markets. Overnight US yield spiked sharply higher, and although those losses were unwound by the day's end, the message is clear, another USD3 trillion of US government spending means more debt issuance even if...

Yen Drops Broadly as Yields Rose on Optimism

Yen trades generally lower today following surging treasury yields and some firmness in stock markets. While it's not yet a full risk-on market, sentiments are positive for now. Swiss Franc, Euro and Dollar also turn slightly softer. On the other hand, commodity currencies and Sterling are trading generally higher. Technically,...

US: Fall-Out Of The Margin Call Saga Might Keep Investors On Edge

Markets Core bonds on Friday extended a decline that started somewhere after a poor US 7-year bond auction the day earlier. Exceptionally strong German Ifo data (96.6 vs. 93.2 expected) and a stronger final U. of Michigan consumer sentiment (84.9 vs. 93 preliminary) added to the bond’s Friday downfall. Overall...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Trading mainly developed through the risk angle today. The recent (European) corona setback outweighs the reflation story in the short run. End of quarter rebalancing out of stocks into bonds might have added to recent moves. European stock markets currently decline around 1%. The technical picture of the EuroStoxx...