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Budget Day

One day up, the next day down. The US major indices closed Tuesday's session in the red. The S&P500 gave back 0.81% following its biggest one-day jump a day earlier. Nasdaq fell 1.69%. Apple erased more than 2% as Tesla shed 4.45%. Last week's sovereign bond rout dazzled investors' eyes...

OPEC: Positive global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are encouraging

OPEC quoted Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo in a series a tweets, noting that "the headwinds of uncertainty that shocked the market last year continue to abate." "The outlook for the global oil market continues to be positive. Positive global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are encouraging". https://twitter.com/OPECSecretariat/status/1366741905116176386

Oil And Gold Slide, US Dollar Rises

Oil catches OPEC-itis Oil prices retreated once again overnight, another divergence from the buy everything playbook that has served the FOMO herd so well these last 12 months. Brent crude fell by 1.85% to USD63.20 a barrel, easing further to USD62.80 a barrel in Asia. WTI fell by 2.20% to...

Loonie Remains Choppy Ahead Of Canadian GDP, OPEC+ Decision

Fourth quarter GDP numbers will be watched out of Canada on Tuesday (13:30 GMT) as the recovery is expected to have lost steam. Nevertheless, the Canadian dollar has been edging higher so far in 2021 as a red-hot housing market, higher oil prices and a predicted economic boom south...

Oil Prices Drop Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting

Market movers today Today we get flash HICP figures from the euro area. After country releases have surprised somewhat on the upside, we expect headline inflation to increase slightly to 1.0% in February. German January retail sales are also released and will likely remain on a very low level...

Week Ahead: When Doves Cry

Fed Chairman Powell provided testimony to Congress last week regarding Monetary Policy.  He noted that the Fed was in no hurry to take its foot off the easing pedal and that although inflation expectations have been creeping into the markets, the Fed views this as a sign of confidence...

Week Ahead – NFP to Guide Yields, RBA Could be a Yawn, Pound Turns to UK Budget for Boost

As a new month starts, investors will have their eyes locked on the latest nonfarm payrolls numbers out of the United States amid an accelerating selloff in bond markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting will be the only central bank gathering of the week but is unlikely...

Brent Crude – Looking Overextended

Momentum slipping ahead of OPEC+ meeting Oil prices have enjoyed a remarkable rally over the last four months as the world has gone from entering the most severe wave of Covid-19 to rolling out vaccines and planning its final exit from the restrictions. Efforts by OPEC+ have been key to this,...

Brent Crude Passes $63 As Risk-On Sentiment Soars

Oil prices kicked off the week on a strong footing, hitting a new 13-month high in early Asian trade. The robust recovery in oil prices and industrial metals over the past couple of months is driving the idea of a new commodities super cycle in which prices remain above-trend...

The Weekly Bottom Line: A Cautiously Optimistic Week

U.S. Highlights Economic data released this week was balanced enough to re-ignite optimism in financial markets without calling into question the next fiscal support package. Job market data showed a third consecutive decline in the weekly jobless claims as well as moderate progress in payrolls and an unexpected drop...

Worsened Demand/Supply Balance Suggests Limited Upside for Crude Oil Prices in Near-Term

Crude oil prices consolidate narrowly around 11-month high. After rebounding about 20% from the March low, upside momentum appears fading. Traders are increasingly concerned about the demand outlook which could be hurt by resurgence in coronavirus cases in China. The Chinese government reported 793 new cases last week, compared...

Oil Pulls Back, Gold Stable, Bitcoin Recovery

Oil slips after another bright start Oil started the day on the front foot but slipped as the US open approached and have been lower since. It’s been a remarable rally for crude in recent months, with OPEC+ giving it one final push last week after deepening cuts, thanks largely to...

Oil Drives Higher, Gold Retreats, Bitcoin In Recovery

Oil rally continues but may face resistance soon Oil’s relentless rally is continuing, with crude prices up roughly 1.5% today, making fresh highs since the pandemic plunge. The rally will run into stronger resistance soon enough but a softer dollar is giving it an additional lift today. I do wonder how...

Asian Stocks Dip As All Eyes On Georgia

Asian equities are slightly lower as US futures retreat Asian markets started brightly, following on from a robust overnight session on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose 0.71%, the Nasdaq jumped 0.95%, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.56%. The rally being broad-based after the NYSE reversal lifted US-listed Chinese companies,...

The Blue Wave Founders

Much like my outside reversal calls yesterday, the Democrat ‘blue wave’ appears to have foundered in the Georgia Senate runoff. With around 90% of the votes now counted, both Republican candidates have narrow leads. If the voting finishes as expected, the Senate will have a 52-48 Republican majority. Futures on...

All Eyes In Georgia: Early Results Point The Democratic Blue Sweep Would Be Completed

Markets The US 10-yr yield took out the psychologic 1% mark for the first time since March. Long term US yields added around 10 bps since the start of the year. The move accelerated yesterday following the release of a stellar US December manufacturing ISM. The ISM unexpectedly increased from...

Crude Oil Soars After Saudi Arabia Concession On Supply Cuts

The price of crude oil soared after the OPEC+ members concluded their meeting. Brent, the global benchmark, rose to $54 while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to above $50 for the first time since March last year. This price action was mostly due to a concession by Saudi...

Dollar Declines Further, Oil Up on Production Cuts

Dollar's decline resumed overnight and stays soft in Asian session today. Though, intensity of the selloff remains relatively weak. FOMC minutes is a feature today but that's unlikely to provide any inspiration for the greenback. Sterling is indeed still the worst performing one for the week for now, as...

WTI oil reclaims 50 after Saudi Arabia agrees 1m bpd voluntary production cut

Oil prices are given a lift after Saudi Arabia agreed to a larger production cut with OPEC+ allies. The world's largest oil exporter agreed to make additional, voluntary cut of 1m barrels per day in February and March. The move led to an overall cut of over 900k bpd...

OPEC+ Compromise Sends Oil Higher, Gold Shines, Bitcoin Rises

Oil rises on OPEC agreement Crude prices jumped after reports that the Russians and Saudis reached a compromise that appears to have steady production in February. The Saudis will take one for the team and make a voluntary oil production cut in February. Both Russia and Kazakhstan were pushing for...

OPEC+ Cut Strengthening Crude And Correlated Currencies: WTI, USD/CAD, USD/NOK

As the OPEC meeting concluded today, Russia said they would slightly increase production in Crude Oil. However, as my colleague Matt Weller points out, Saudi Arabia agreed to cut 1,000,000 bpd, for a net cut of 900,000 bpd for the next 2 months! The result is a new post-pandemic...

OPEC+ To CUT Production Until March, WTI Crude Oil Surges To 10-Month High At $50

After failing to reach a deal yesterday, oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia reached an agreement to cut production until at least March, sending West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices soaring in midday US trade. In terms of details, Russia and Kazakhstan will increase production by a...

Deciding Day For The Balance Of Power In The US Congress

Market movers today The big event of today is the run-off for the two US senate seats in Georgia. The run-off is crucial as if the Democrats take both seats, they gain control of both chambers of the US Congress, allowing them to pursue their policy agenda more aggressively....

Oil and Gold Start 2020 On Bright Note

Oil awaits OPEC+ A weaker US dollar and more vaccine approvals appear to have inspired oil prices to move higher in Asia, boosted by robust regional manufacturing PMI data. Brent crude has risen 1.15% to USD52.05 a barrel, and WTI has rallied 1.70% to USD49.00 a barrel. OPEC+ meets today to...

Georgia On My Mind

Georgia election too close to call  The first week of the new year brings plenty of potential volatility, meaning those looking to ease gently into 2021 are likely to be disappointed. The US state of Georgia’s double-senate runoff election tomorrow looms as the week’s critical event risk. The result will...

Oil Markets Unchanged In Asia

Oil climbs on OPEC+ deal Oil prices spiked higher on Friday after OPEC+ finally reached an agreement to add just 500,000 barrels of production per day to markets in January. That was more than markets had hoped for, but less than they feared. OPEC+ will move to a monthly cycle...

Weekly Focus – Crucial EU Council Meeting in the Coming Week

This week we published a number of flagship publications. First, we examine the economic outlook in the The Big Picture - Darkest before dawn, 1 December. In our view, the continued high levels of COVID-19 cases means restrictions are likely to remain through to early spring. Following the strong...

US Stimulus Deal Moves Closer, Brexit Talks ‘Go Backwards’

Stocks at records or near highs as US Republicans change tune on new stimulus Brexit talks go down to the wire, but will France cause a last-minute upset? Dollar slide pauses ahead of NFP report Oil jumps to 9-month high despite OPEC+ raising production early Fresh hopes for US...

Another Record High For US Stocks?

Brent hits nine-month high after OPEC+ deal. US non-farm payrolls unlikely to change current narrative. Risk appetite buffered by hopes over vaccine, fiscal stimulus and central bank easing. Risk assets are looking to end the week and the year on a high. US stock futures are edging into the...

The Dollar Can’t Fight The Law Of Gravity And Sinks Deeper Into The Black Hole

Markets The dollar can't fight the law of gravity and sinks deeper into the black hole which opened up after formal technical breaks early this week. DXY 91.75 and EUR/USD 1.2011 are already long forgotten with the siren song of 2018 (dollar) lows, respectively at DXY 88.25 and EUR/USD 1.2555,...