AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7158 lost momentum after breaking 0.7523 resistance. That could be seen in the mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise could be seen with 0.7448 minor support intact this week. But upside should be limited by 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.
In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it’s likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We’ll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.
In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.