AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6991 resumed last week and hit as high as 0.7399. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 0.7413 high first. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 0.5506 and target 0.7635 long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7265 support will extend the consolidation from 0.7413 with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.6991 support instead.
In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.
In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Decisive break there should confirm reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Though, rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness for another low through 0.5506 at a later stage.
