AUD/USD’s rebound form 0.6680 short term bottom extended higher last week. As a temporary top was formed at 0.7030, initial bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7030 will resume the rebound to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound from 0.6910 is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration, as seen in weekly MACD), is raising the chance that it’s a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.
In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.
