AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6680 resumed last week. While upside momentum is diminishing slightly, further rally is still expected this week to 100% projection of 0.6680 to 0.7045 from 0.6868 at 0.7233. However, break of 0.7008 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.6868 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.
In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it’s a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.