AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6693 last week but couldn’t sustain below 0.6721 support and recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.6854 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.6693 will resume the fall from 0.7156 to 161.8% projection of of 0.6854 to 0.7028 from 0.6854 at 0.6539. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6854 will argue that such decline is finished, and revive near term bullishness.
In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 0.6721 structural support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level will retain medium term bullishness for another rise through 0.7156 later.
In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.
