AUD/USD Weekly Report

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.6894 extended lower last week and hit as low as 0.6621. Deeper fall is in favor this week, but strong support should be seen from 0.6594 to complete to corrective pattern from 0.6898. On the upside, break of 0.6714 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.6894/8 resistance zone. However, sustained break of 0.6594 will dampen this will and bring deeper fall towards 0.6457.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed for now as AUD/USD failed to sustain above both 55 D EMA (now at 0.6720) and 55 W EMA (now at 0.6784). On the upside, break of 0.65898 resistance will solidify the case that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has already completed, and target 0.7156 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6457 will likely resume the down trend through 0.6169 (2022 low).

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as a corrective move to up rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). This correction could have completed at 0.6169. Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.7085) will affirm this case, and indicate that rise from 0.5506 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 0.6169 will revive long term bearishness and turn focus back to 0.5506 low.

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