AUD/USD Weekly Report

AUD/USD’s decline argues that corrective recovery from 0.6442 has completed at 0.6594. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.6486, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.6486 will target a retest on 0.6442 first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6870. However, on the upside, break of 0.6594 will resume the rebound from 0.6442 and turn bias back to the upside instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

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