AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6621 last week but drew support from 38.2% retracement of 0.6348 to 0.6823 at 0.6642 and recovered. Upside is capped below 0.6766 resistance and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6621 and sustained trading 0.6642 will target 61.8% retracement at 0.6529. Nevertheless, break of 0.6766 will bring retest of 0.6823 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 0.6798/6870 resistance zone will target 0.7156 resistance. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6361 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
