EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.9799 resumed last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.6597 key support next. On the upside, though, break of 1.7350 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, while the pull back from 1.9799 is deep, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. EUR/AUD is still holding on to 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668. Larger rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and would resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.6597 suggest bearish reversal.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress, with 2.1127 (2008 high) as next target. However, sustained break of 1.6597 (2015 high) cluster support, with 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668 will argue that such rally is completed. Outlook will then be turned bearish for 61.8% retracement at 1.4733.
