EUR/AUD dropped to as low as 1.6033 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6772 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will extend the fall from 1.9799 to next support level at 1.5346.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.6597 key cluster support, (2015 high and 38.2% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.6668, 55 week EMA (now at 1.6553) suggests that whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed. Deeper fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

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In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5713) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.

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