EUR/AUD’s recovery from 1.6033 extended higher last week but upside was limited well below 1.6772 resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.6033 will resume whole decline from 1.9799 and target next support level at 1.5346. On the upside, though, break of 1.6772 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This week remain the preferred case now as long as 1.7194 resistance holds.

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In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5737) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.


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