EUR/AUD dipped to 1.6050 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.6232 will resume the rebound from 1.5907 to retest 1.6434 high. On the downside, below 1.6050 support will suggest that rebound from 1.5907 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5907. Overall, with 1.5898 support intact, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in progress, and break of 1.6434 will confirm resumption.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.
