EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6434 continued last week and hit as low as 1.5609. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 1.6434 to 1.5907 from 1.6232 at 1.5379 next. On the upside, above 1.5753 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5907 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) only. With 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 intact, such down trend is expected to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.5250 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. In any case, sustained break of 1.6988 fibonacci level is needed to indicate long term reversal.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.