EUR/AUD’s choppy rise from 1.5559 resumed last week. Initial bias is now mildly on the upside this week for retesting 1.6168 resistance. Break there will resume the rise from 1.5354 to 1.6434 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.5712 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5559 support instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733