EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD edged lower last week but quickly recovered. Yet, upside is limited by 1.5614 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.5976 at 1.5329 to complete the correction from 1.5976. Firm break of 1.5614 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5976. However, sustained trading below 1.5329 will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4928.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

In the longer term picture, focus stays on 55 month EMA (now at 1.5595). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal, and at least bring further rally to 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389. However, rejection by 55 month EMA will suggest that down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress for another low below 1.4281.

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