EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD stayed in range of 1.6231/6601 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected with 1.6231 support intact. Firm break of 1.6601 will solidify the case that corrective fall from 1.6785 has completed, and target a retest on this high next.

In the bigger picture, with 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828 intact, rally from 1.4281 is still in progress. Firm break of 1.6785 will confirm rise resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.5254 to 1.6785 from 1.5846 at 1.7377. On the other hand, rejection by 1.6785 will extend the corrective pattern with another fall leg. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5828 holds.

In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). But in either case, further rally is in favor as long as 1.5254 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691.

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