EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6742 extended to 1.6368 last week before turning sideway. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6516 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.6368 will resume the fall from 1.6742 towards 1.6127 low. Nevertheless, break of 1.6516 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). The correction is probably still in progress with fall from 1.6742 as the third leg. Strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5950) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

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