EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.8155 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7593. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.77812) holds. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg. Sustained trading below 1.7593 will target 1.7245 support and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6464) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
 holds. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg. Sustained trading below 1.7593 will target 1.7245 support and possibly below.){kind=link}