EUR/AUD stayed in range of 1.7561/7895 last week and the near term outlook is mixed. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.7561 support will revive the bearish case that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg, and target 1.7245 support. On the upside, though, above 1.7895 will resume the rebound from 1.7561 to 1.8160 resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7426) will suggest that it’s correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6546) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
