EUR/AUD’s strong rebound and breach of 55 D EMA (now at 1.7726) last week argues that fall from 1.8160 might have completed. But as a temporary top was formed at 1.7804, initial bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 1.7804 will solidify this case and target 1.7976 resistance next. However, break of 1.7635 minor support will bring retest of 1.7477 low instead. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend further.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7468) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it’s already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6585) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
 last week argues that fall from 1.8160 might have completed. But as a temporary top was formed at 1.7804, initial bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 1.7804 will solidify this case and target 1.7976 resistance next. However, break of 1.7635 minor support will bring retest of 1.7477 low instead. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend further.){kind=link}