EUR/CHF edged higher to 1.1713 last week but dropped notably since then. The development argues that corrective rise from 1.1366 could have completed with three waves up to 1.1713 already. Further decline is expected this week as long as 1.1668 minor resistance holds, to 1.1478 support first. Break there will likely resume the whole corrective fall from 1.2004 through 1.1366 low. On the upside, above 1.1668 will bring another rise. But in the case, we’d continue to expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760 to bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.

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