EUR/CHF’s recovery from 1.1343 extended higher to 1.1470 last week but dropped sharply since then. The development argues that the recovery might have completed already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.1343 first. Break there will extend the fall from 1.1501 and target 1.1154/98 key support zone again. On the upside, break of 1.1470 will turn focus back to 1.1501. Decisive break of 1.1501 will revive the case of bullish reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1243) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

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