EUR/CHF surged to as high as 1.1476 last week and breached 1.1444 resistance. However, it was rejected below 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484. With a short term top formed, intraday bias is now mildly on the downside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1324) first. Sustained break will pave the way back to 1.1162 low. On the upside, break of 1.1484 fibonacci resistance will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that medium term fall from 1.2004 is merely a corrective move. That is, up trend from 0.9771 is not completed yet. Nevertheless, there is little prospect of up trend resumption yet. More range trading should be seen in medium term.
