EUR/CHF’s decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 0.9970 has completed with waves up to 1.0513, after rejection by 1.0505 key resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0186 support first. Break there will target 1.0086 next. On the upside, above 1.0359 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.0513 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0876).
