EUR/CHF’s decline last week suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9550 has completed at 0.9864 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.9550 first. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0512 to 0.9550 from 0.9864 at 0.9269. On the upside, above 0.9780 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside, to extend the rebound from 0.9550 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0512 to 0.9550 at 0.9917.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9970 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until firm break of 1.0505 support (2020 low).
