EUR/CHF attempted to resume down trend last week and dipped to 0.9530, but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9864 resistance holds. Break of 0.9530 will extend larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0512 to 0.9550 from 0.9864 at 0.9269.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9864 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low).
