EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF’s rally resumed last week and rose to as high as 0.9883, despite loss of upside momentum. 61.8% projection of 0.9407 to 0.9798 from 0.9641 at 0.9883 was met but there is no sign of topping. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 0.9864 will solidify the case of medium term bottoming and target 100% projection at 1.0032. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9641 support holds, even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.9864 resistance will confirm medium term bottoming at 0.9407. Stronger rally should then be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 1.0128), even as a corrective rebound. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9864 will bring down trend resumption through 0.9407 next.

In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). In case of resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033.

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