EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF’s rise from 0.9407 finally resumed by breaking through 0.9953 last week, and hit as high as 1.0095. But as a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Downside should be contained by 0.9953 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 1.0095 will resume the rise to 100% projection of 0.9407 to 0.9953 from 0.9720 at 1.0266 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 and 55 week EMA (now at 1.0041) is taken as an initial sign of long term bullish reversal. Further rally is expected as long as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9866) holds. Next target is 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484). Reactions from there should reveal long term momentum.

In the long term picture, it’s still way to early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 month EMA and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low).

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