EUR/CHF dipped further to 0.9675 last week, but turned sideway just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Strong support should still be seen around 0.9670 to complete the whole corrective pattern from 1.0095. On the upside, firm break of 0.9760 resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9878 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.9670 will pave the way back to 0.9407 low instead.
In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9945). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).
In the long term picture, it’s still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0515) and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.
