While EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9670 extended to 0.9840 last week, subsequent reversal suggests that it has completed already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.9670 low. Sustained break there will resume the whole fall from 1.0095. Nevertheless, break of 0.9840 will resume the rebound to 0.9878 resistance.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9918). Down trend form 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to extend through 0.9407 at a later stage. Nevertheless, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, it’s still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0484) and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.
