EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF extended the consolidation from 0.9691 last week and outlook is basically unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 0.9691 will resume whole rise from 0.9513 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9513 at 0.9735. However, firm break of 0.9611 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9513 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as the cross is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9793). That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) could still resume through 0.9407 (2022 low). However, sustained trading above the 55 W EMA will raise the chance that 0.9470 is already a long term bottom. Further rise would then be seen to 1.0095 resistance to indicate bullish trend reversal.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0368). Break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.

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