EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9416 extend higher last week. A short term bottom should be formed on bullish convergence condition in 4 H MACD, just ahead of 0.9407 medium term bottom. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9571) will bring further rise to 0.9691 key structural resistance. On the downside, though, below 0.9457 support will bring retest of 0.9407/16 zone.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.9407 will confirm resumption, and target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. On the upside, break of 0.9691 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0362). Break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.

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