EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF edged lower to 0.9476 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral and some more consolidations would be seen. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9476, and sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will bring retest of 0.9252 low next.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.9252 should have completed at 0.9228. Medium term outlook remains bearish with 1.0095 resistance intact. Firm break of 0.9252 will resume the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high).

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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